Doorey on Canada AM and CBC on Toronto Strike

I did a quick bit on Canada AM about the ongoing strike in the City of Toronto.  You can watch it here   I was also interviewed by CBC Radio yesterday and parts of that interview were aired on this morning news.  Here’s the written story that accompanies that audio piece.
What both interviewers were interested in was what could happen next, and was it still likely that interest arbitration could be the endgame.  As I have noted before, interest arbitration, the process in which issues in dispute are resolved by a neutral arbitrator, can come about in two ways:  (1) by agreement of the parties to refer the issues to arbitration and end the dispute; or (2) through ‘back to work’ legislation passed by the provincial government.  
Premier McGuinty has expressed no interest (yet) in passing legislation, and David Miller has been clear from the outset of the strike that the City does not want an arbitrated solution for fear of the potential costs of the award.  In 2002, I believe the arbitrator awarded 3% over three years, which the City thought was too high.   Thus, it appears that an arbitrated end to the strike is unlikely at present.  But things could change.  If the recent renewed energy at the bargaining table does not resolve the dispute in the next few days, it is possible that the union and/or the employer may resort to different tactics.  For example, the employer could put its offer to the workers in the form of a ‘final offer vote’, a process in the Labour Relations Act that permits the employer one opportunity to have its best offer put to a vote of the employees.  You may recall my earlier posts this year describing how both OC Transpo in Ottawa and York University tried this tactic, and in both cases, the workers rejected the employer’s offer.  After that, both disputes ended up in arbitration (by agreement in Ottawa and legislation in the York strike).
As I noted in the CBC piece, there are risks to the employer in trying the final offer vote.  It usually harms the relationship between the bargaining committees because unions perceive it as the employer trying to undermine the workers’ confidence in the union’s leadership.  And when the employees reject the offer, it can empower and raise the employees’ expectations that the employer will come back with more.   
The union also has some options.  One that I have noted before is that they could simply take the position that they are prepared to end the strike immediately and refer the dispute to arbitration.  There are several benefits to the union in taking that route.  Firstly, it would put the employer and David Miller on the defensive since it would now be the City that is prolonging the strike by its refusal to agree to the union’s offer to arbitrate.  And since there is always a strong possibility that the dispute will end up at arbitration anyways if it goes long enough (through legislation), Miller could take the blame for unnecessarily extended an unpopular dispute.  Moreover, there are potential benefits to the union here in an arbitrated solution.  While nothing is certain at arbitration, so there is definitely some risk to the union as well as the employer, interest arbitration is a process that is usually rather conservative.  Arbitrators don’t like awarding a completely novel term or gutting a long-standing benefit that the union has fought hard to preserve.  This could mean that the banked sick day benefit that has attracted so much media attention could very well survive an interest arbitration.  The union would be unlikely to get all it wants in other areas, like wages, but you have to question whether it will do so by continuing the strike indefinitely too.   The employer is offering between 1 and 3%  over 4 years, and the union is proposing about 3% each year.  There is room for an agreement there and an arbitrator would likely end up somewhere in the middle.
Unions never like to relinquish the right to strike, and for good reason, but it is not at all uncommon for public sector unions to propose arbitration to end a strike.  In fact, CUPE has done just this in the ongoing strike in Windsor.  
Do any of you have opinions on whether CUPE should propose interest arbitration at this point in the strike?